Clay Buchholz has a 6.03 ERA and a 1.596 WHIP,
both of which are better than last season at this time
Following their loss to the Toronto Blue Jays on April 27, 2014, the Red Sox were 12-14 and were in fourth place 3.5 games out of first place.
Following their loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on May 4, 2015, the Red Sox are 12-14 and are in fifth place 4.0 games out of first place.
Hmmm.
Didn’t the folks in Vegas and Pecota land tell us to ignore the obvious weaknesses in the pitching staff and tell us that 700+ runs scored would be all the Sox would need to go 87-75 and win the division? Of course, it’s still very possible that the Sox will go 75-61 and that the Kansas City Royals who were slated to go 72-90 will go 56-81 the rest of the way, but neither paths seems all that likely.
The 16-9 Royals were 13-12 at this point last season and we know where they ended up, and we know where the Red Sox ended up, so it just feels as if the prognostications for the two teams were odd, to say the least.
Obviously, it’s still very early
This seems like an apropos time to bring up Yogi Berra who purportedly said:
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
And perhaps, equally importantly and insightfully:
“It’s getting late early”
I mention that because of these comparisons of the 2014 Red Sox and the 2015 Red Sox each with 12-14 record:
Hitting
2014 Team BA: .241
2015 Team BA: .242
2014 Team OBP: .329
2015 Team OBP: .326
2014 Team SLG: .379
2015 Team SLG: .381
2014 Runs: 105
2015 Runs: 123
2014 Hits: 213
2015 Hits: 220
2014 Walks: 102
2015 Walks: 103
2014 Strikeouts: 216
2015 Strikeouts: 179
2014 HR: 22
2015 HR: 29
2014 XBH: 75
2015 XBH: 64
2014 Team BA w/runners: .235
2015 Team BA w/runners: .256
2014 Team BA w/RISP: .218
2015 Team BA w/RISP: .220
2014 Team OBP 1st batter of an inning: .316
2015 Team OBP 1st batter of an inning: .280
2014 3-4-5 BA/OBP/SLG: .269/.363/.475
2015 3-4-5 BA/OBP/SLG: .264/.344/.463
- 2014 Dustin Pedroia – .274, zero homers, 11 K, .689 OPS, .273 RISP
- 2015 Dustin Pedroia – .287, five homers, 15 K, .856 OPS, .120 RISP
- 2014 David Ortiz – .253, five homers, 15K, .819 OPS, .289 men on, .167 RISP, .313 vs lefties
- 2015 David Ortiz – .250, four homers, 18K, .772 OPS, .220 men on, .182 RISP, .087 vs lefties
- 2014 Xander Bogaerts – .287, one homer, 21K, .783 OPS, .206 men on, .167 RISP, .274 vs righties
- 2015 Xander Bogaerts – .264, one homer, 18K, .694 OPS, .275 men on, .318 RISP, .265 vs righties
Pitching
2014 Team ERA: 3.90
2015 Team ERA: 5.04
2014 Team WHIP: 1.392
2015 Team WHIP: 1.389
2014 Team BAA: .271
2015 Team BAA: .264
2014 Team Runs/ER: 120/102
2015 Team Runs/ER: 139/133
2014 Team Hits: 253
2015 Team Hits: 244
2014 Team Walks: 75
2015 Team Walks: 86
2014 Team Strikeouts: 220
2015 Team Strikeouts: 212
2014 Team HR: 24
2015 Team HR: 30
2014 Team XBH: 89
2015 Team XBH: 81
2014 Team BA w/runners: .259
2015 Team BA w/runners: .283
2014 Team BA w/RISP: .279
2015 Team BA w/RISP: .308
2014 Team OBP 1st batter of an inning: .347
2015 Team OBP 1st batter of an inning: .293
2014 3-4-5 BA/OBP/SLG: .298/.362/.515
2015 3-4-5 BA/OBP/SLG: .254/.320/.426
2014 Starter ERA: 4.33
2015 Starter ERA: 5.73
2014 Starter WHIP: 1.438
2015 Starter WHIP: 1.392
2014 Starter BAA/OBP/SLG: .280/.332/.453
2015 Starter BAA/OBP/SLG: .262/.330/.457
2014 Starter BA w/runners: .285
2015 Starter BA w/runners: .314
2014 Starter BA w/RISP: .303
2015 Starter BA w/RISP: .344
2014 Bullpen ERA: 3.07
2015 Bullpen ERA: 3.99
2014 Bullpen WHIP: 1.305
2015 Bullpen WHIP: 1.384
2014 Bullpen Pitches: 1309
2015 Bullpen Pitches: 1591
- 2014 Clay Buchholz – 6.66 ERA, 1.753 WHIP, 5.13 IP/G, 19 K, .339 BAA, .405 RISP
- 2015 Clay Buchholz – 6.03 ERA, 1.596 WHIP, 5.22 IP/G, 40 K, .303 BAA, .484 RISP
- 2014 Junichi Tazawa – 1.74 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, 10.1 IP, 10 K, .273 BAA, .111 RISP
- 2015 Junichi Tazawa – 2.19 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 11 K, .234 BAA, .167 RISP
- 2014 Edward Mujica – 8.64 ERA, 1.800 WHIP, 8.1 IP, 6 K, .324 BAA, .313 RISP
- 2015 Edward Mujica – 5.11 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, 12.1 IP, 7 K, .298 BAA, .333 RISP
- 2014 Craig Breslow – 7.50 ERA, 2.167 WHIP, 6.0 IP, 3 K, .360 BAA, .500 RISP
- 2015 Craig Breslow – 3.00 ERA, 1.333 WHIP, 15.0 IP, 12 K, .236 BAA, .250 RISP
- 2014 Koji Uehara – 0.96 ERA, 0.964 WHIP, 9.1 IP, 16 K, .216 BAA, .200 RISP
- 2015 Koji Uehara – 2.84 ERA, 0.789 WHIP, 6.1 IP, 11 K, .227 BAA, .000 RISP
So, here’s the interesting thing
It appears that it’s the new guys who are not performing for the Sox to this point. When you do a cursory look, as I have done, at the numbers of the players and pitchers who were on the team last year at this time and this year, it’s about a wash. Which leads us to the belief that thus far the acquisition of hitting talent has not proven to be a significant upgrade over the hitting on the team last season and the new pitching is worse than last season. Now granted, we are just 16% through the season, and the pitching and the hitting could improve. Or, it could get worse. Or, it could stay the same.
The 2014 Sox went 59-77 the rest of the season and so far there is no indication that the Sox can play 16 games better than that and reach 87 wins.
So what difference has a year made thus far for Boston? Same results, but with different faces. At this point, it’s rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.
